Duke, UNC, and the 2013 Success-Meter: Survey Says, "Meh."

Reality settles in for Duke's #1 fan. - Streeter Lecka

A Heels fan catches hell right now for putting a positive "spin" on the 2012-13 season, but it's hard to see why. Especially when compared to the season turned in by that private school down the road.

Duke brought back their three best players (all seniors) from the previous season, while the Heels lost their top four and enjoyed only one senior and three upperclassmen in their eleven-man rotation. At various points in the season, Duke fans had very real visions of winning it all this year, while Heels fans had equally real visions of another NIT.

Which explains why I'm having so much trouble interpreting the following success-meter:

2012-13 Conference Finish ACC Reg. Sea. Title ACC Tourn. Title ACC Tourn. Finish NCAA Tourn. Finish
Duke 2nd 0 0 Quarterfinal 8
UNC 3rd 0 0 Final 32

You'd rather be Duke in this scenario, but the measure of success isn't that dissimilar. In addition to the table above, Duke had only one more All-ACC performer (including the only first-teamer, but also the only player to tie for 16th on a 15-man team), each featured one ACC All-Freshman performer, and each netted zero ACC All-Defense honors. Neither can boast a player or coach of the year, and it took a 1-seed to knock both out of the national tournament.

In the end, both teams finished among the best in the conference and among the better teams in the nation, but neither really won anything (which is what posterity remembers, when it remembers anything at all).

This is not to in any way imply that Carolina had as good a year as Duke. The Elite Eight's a different world than the Round of 32, and there's that pesky 0-2 head-to-head record to consider. (Although, I also can't remember the last time I got to watch the Heels win and Duke lose on the same day four times in a season.)

But can somebody give me one good reason why things should have ended up so close?

"Ryan Kelly" might be a legitimate answer. But last year's Heels were absolutely PLAGUED by injuries and still managed a high success disparity in these same categories compared with the lesser of Tobacco Road's finest:

2011-12 Conf. Finish Reg. Sea. Title ACC Tourn. Title ACC Tourn. NCAA Tourn. All-ACC POY COY
UNC 1st 1 0 Final 8 4 (3 1st-team) 1 0
Duke 2nd 0 0 Semifinal 64 3 (2 3rd-team) 0 0

So, is it really all about injury for Duke this season?

Here's my take (and it's one that's proved true far more often in recent years than it's proved false): Duke just isn't as good as Duke thinks it is. Or, at least, not as good as it thinks it should be, which must have some connection to the Blue Devils' prevailing trend of being a much better regular season team than post-season one.

I don't know why this is. And I don't have a Disappointment-Meter--but my guess is it's registering pretty high in Durham today.

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